Gold starts 2026 with momentum
Gold could start 2026 with considerable momentum. According to Citi Group, there are many factors suggesting that the precious metals market will continue to enjoy tailwinds for the time being. Analysts expect gold to exceed the US$5,000 per ounce mark as early as the first quarter of 2026. In their view, silver will also remain a key beneficiary of the current market environment.
But there is more to it than just classic inflation or interest rate issues. The gold market is increasingly responding to political decisions, trade flows, and logistical effects. It is precisely this combination that is causing prices to move faster and, in some cases, more sharply than in previous market phases.
Why the start of the year could be crucial
According to Citi, the start of 2026 could be a period of increased momentum. Gold traditionally benefits when uncertainty increases, whether due to geopolitical tensions, fragile economic relations, or doubts about the stability of monetary policy conditions.
Several factors are currently coming together:
- Geopolitical risks remain unresolved
- Uncertainties surrounding the role and independence of the US Federal Reserve
- Physical bottlenecks and reallocations in precious metals trading
Silver in particular is currently demonstrating how sensitively markets can react to such stimuli. Strong movements in silver often act as an amplifier for the entire precious metals segment, including gold.
Trade policy: a factor that is often underestimated
One exciting aspect of Citi's analysis is its look at US trade policy. Decisions are pending in the context of the so-called "Section 232" proceedings, which deal with critical minerals. Even the expectation of possible tariffs or trade restrictions can influence supply chains and divert physical metal flows.
Citi describes the situation as double-edged:
- If restrictive measures are imposed, metals could increasingly be shifted to the US. This would create shortages outside the US and drive up prices.
- If tough measures are not taken, previously built-up inventories could flow back into other regions, putting corresponding pressure on prices.
Strategists see an increased potential for setbacks here, particularly with silver. Since many investors trade several metals at the same time, stronger corrections could also spill over to gold.
Not the whole year will look the same
As positive as the short-term outlook is, Citi does not expect 2026 to be a consistently linear year for precious metals. The focus of the markets could shift as the year progresses. If geopolitical tensions ease or economic stabilization trends prevail, demand for traditional safe-haven investments could decline.
In this scenario, industrial metals could come more to the fore. Copper and aluminum stand to benefit in the long term from trends such as electrification, grid expansion, and infrastructure investment. Gold would not lose its importance, but could become more susceptible to interim corrections.
What does this mean for gold?
The bottom line is that gold remains a key anchor in the commodity universe. In the short term, there are many factors pointing to a strong start to 2026, driven by political uncertainty, market bottlenecks, and defensive positioning. At the same time, political decisions and global trade flows are becoming increasingly important for price formation.
A look at the big picture
Gold is starting 2026 with momentum, but the market remains challenging. Citi Group sees further upside potential in the short term, but warns of an environment that is more influenced by politics and trade flows than by traditional market models. For investors, this means that gold remains in demand, but requires more attention to the big picture.