Gold strong, silver even stronger: How long will the precious metal rally last?
Gold is shining, silver is racing ahead, and the precious metals market is providing plenty of talking points at the end of the year. Gold is trading close to its record high, silver has reached new highs and at times even exceeded the US$64 per ounce mark. The performance of both metals is among the strongest on the entire commodities market in 2025.
But as the rally continues, so does the debate: Is this an exaggeration, perhaps even a bubble? Or are we currently witnessing a structural revaluation of precious metals that could continue into 2026?
Gold experiences its strongest year in decades
Gold looks back on an exceptional year. With almost 50 new all-time highs and an annual gain of more than 65 percent, the precious metal delivered a performance in 2025 that was last seen at the end of the 1970s. At the end of the year, the price of gold is stable at around US$4,300 per ounce.
The tailwind came from several directions:
- Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve
- persistent inflation concerns coupled with falling real interest rates
- geopolitical tensions and an uncertain macroeconomic environment
It is precisely in phases like these that gold traditionally plays to its strengths. As a non-interest-bearing tangible asset, it benefits from falling real yields and is deliberately used by many investors as an anchor of stability in their portfolios, especially in times of high valuations on the stock markets.
Silver goes one better, with more speed and more risk
As strong as gold was in 2025, silver clearly outperformed the precious metal. With an increase of around 115 percent since the beginning of the year, silver is one of the absolute top performers. Even after minor setbacks, the price continues to trade at historic levels.
The difference between gold and silver: silver is not only a precious metal, but also an industrial metal. Demand from sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and other future technologies provides additional momentum. At the same time, it is precisely this dual role that makes silver much more susceptible to fluctuations.
Historically, a similar pattern has repeatedly emerged: during strong precious metal phases, silver initially outperforms gold significantly, but usually reacts much more sharply during correction phases.
Bubble or revaluation? Opinions differ
The extraordinary price movements have also attracted the attention of critics. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently warned that gold, like stocks, could be entering "bubble-like" territory.
Other market observers disagree, citing a frequently quoted argument: "overpriced but underowned." Although gold is highly valued, it remains underrepresented in the global asset context. Many institutional and private investors have only moderately increased their allocations so far.
Should broader shifts occur here, additional demand could arise even at high price levels.
Looking ahead: Why 2026 remains exciting
What could halt the rally? Analysts cite three main factors: a significant rise in interest rates, a return to greater global stability, or noticeable fiscal consolidation in the major economies. However, many market observers consider these scenarios to be rather unlikely at the turn of 2025/26.
Instead, many expect:
- further decline or at least low real interest rates
- ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
- structural debt problems
Against this backdrop, gold prices in the range of US$5,000 per ounce are being discussed for 2026. For silver, scenarios range from US$75 to US$80, with some voices even seeing even higher theoretical potential. It should be noted that these are scenarios, not guarantees.
Precious metals remain in focus
Gold and silver are entering the new year with exceptional momentum. Whether this will result in a long-term revaluation or a classic exaggeration followed by a correction remains to be seen. One thing is clear, however: precious metals will continue to be one of the most exciting topics on the commodity markets in 2026 and remain firmly in the focus of many investors.